OK, another stupid argument

Is it ever right to lay down AA? Well, I think that's an obvious yes. Musky Boy is having a low-sleep day, becuase he's giving me grief over this following scenario:

You are in a large MT tourney. You're down to 5 players. Big Stack is $2,000,000. There are 3 players with $200,000, and you have $20,000.

The three players with $200k go all in in front of you. Now, you look down at AA. Assuming you are all even skill wise, you have 1 in 130 chance at winning the tourney. Even if that big stack isn't in the game, you're 1 in 31 to win. Assuming you win, you'd have $80K to $520K. You're now only 1 in 7.5 - to move up 1 spot. So the odds are still strongly against you moving up an extra position.

You fold AA in that hand, and now you are almost guaranteed of a 3rd place finish. You play it, and you risk losing the hand and finishing in 5th. You do not significantly increase your chances of finishing in 2nd (which is THE only reason to make this play).

So I think it's clear to any reasonable individual that the correct EV play, the correct money play is to fold any hand. But, if you want to play for that 1 in 7.5 chance - go nuts Musky Boy.